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Bitcoin Mining Scenario Simulator

Model your mining operation across the past, present, and future.

Calculators answer individual mining questions. The Simulator evaluates an entire mining decision across time. Need a quick answer? Try the Fleet ROI calculator.

Saved input sources

Based on network data from Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC

Bitcoin price

$83,466 · Hourly price collection (saved snapshot)

Updated Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC

Network difficulty

132.72 T · mempool.space (saved snapshot)

Updated Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC

Block subsidy

3.125 BTC · Bitcoin protocol

Effective since Apr 20, 2024

Fee revenue per block

0.0179 BTC (7-day) · 0.0173 BTC (24-hour) · mempool.space reward stats (saved snapshot)

Updated Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC

Network snapshot

Block 971,354 · 950.0 EH/s (difficulty-implied)

Hashrate derived from current difficulty via mempool.space (saved snapshot)

Step 1. Define the fleet

Machines come from the site's miner catalog. Prices are point-in-time observations — enter what you actually paid.

11.0 J/TH · Air · Available

Total miners
10
Fleet hashrate
3.18 PH/s
Connected load
35.0 kW
Facility load
36.7 kW
Avg efficiency
11.0 J/TH
Acquisition cost
$81,030

My Fleet — results summary

This is scenario analysis, not a prediction. Results depend on the assumptions shown below.

HISTORICAL · what happened

Loading history…

CURRENT · where you stand

Net $57/day at $83,466 BTC. Shutdown price $44,502 (87.6% above).

FORWARD · 24 months
  • Bear: -$70,981 net, ROI −87.6%, shuts down month 13
  • Base: -$60,735 net, ROI −75.0%, shuts down month 19
  • Bull: -$47,502 net, ROI −58.6%
FUTURE

Bear / Base / Bull scenarios

What happens next under different assumptions?

Defaults are editable assumptions, not predictions. Starting price and difficulty are today's values. The April 2028 halving (estimated) is applied automatically.

Bear

= −21.5%/year · ends ≈ $52,446

= 42.6%/year · ≈ 1.38% per adjustment

Base

= 0.0%/year · ends ≈ $83,466

= 26.8%/year · ≈ 0.92% per adjustment

Bull

= 26.8%/year · ends ≈ $131,617

= 19.6%/year · ≈ 0.69% per adjustment

MetricBearBaseBull
BTC produced0.46329 BTC0.69100 BTC0.81940 BTC
Cumulative revenue$34,933$57,675$83,402
Electricity expense$24,186$36,226$48,206
Net operating cash flow$10,049$20,295$33,528
Net cash flow after capital-$70,981-$60,735-$47,502
ROI−87.6%−75.0%−58.6%
PaybackNot within horizonNot within horizonNot within horizon
Ending mining margin−260.1%−75.3%1.7%
Ending break-even power$0.0225/kWh$0.0449/kWh$0.0793/kWh
Shutdown riskUnprofitable from month 13Unprofitable from month 19None in horizon
Cumulative cash flow by scenario (capital basis: fleet cost + extra capex)

Forward ROI treats the fleet as deployed today at its acquisition cost. Months where revenue after pool fees doesn't cover power are curtailed (no revenue, no power cost).

Keep output vs sell to cover costs

After 24 months, at five possible BTC prices. Keep output: hold every coin mined and pay power and pool fees in cash. Sell to cover costs: each month, sell just enough BTC to pay those bills and keep the rest. Uses the Base scenario's difficulty growth; price moves smoothly from today to the exit price. Both net figures subtract the fleet cost.

BTC price at endKeep: BTC heldKeep: cash paid for costsKeep: net resultSell: BTC leftSell: net resultBetter
$41,733 (0.5× today)0.52306 BTC$26,741-$85,9420.13656 BTC-$75,331Sell to cover
$62,600 (0.75× today)0.69100 BTC$37,272-$75,0460.19305 BTC-$68,945Sell to cover
$83,466 (1× today)0.69100 BTC$37,379-$60,7350.24316 BTC-$60,735Tie
$125,199 (1.5× today)0.69100 BTC$37,559-$32,0770.30243 BTC-$43,166Keep output
$166,932 (2× today)0.78195 BTC$50,429-$9260.34651 BTC-$23,186Keep output

Keeping output wins when the price ends above the average price you'd have sold at; selling to cover wins when it ends below. Neither choice changes how much BTC the fleet mines. Taxes are not modeled. Explore this in the Keep vs Sell calculator with charts →

Bitcoin mining simulator FAQ

What is the Bitcoin Mining Scenario Simulator?

It models one mining fleet across three stages: how it would have performed historically since purchase, its economics at today's price and difficulty, and Bear/Base/Bull forecasts over 12–36 months with halvings applied automatically.

Is this a price prediction?

No. Every forward figure is scenario analysis that depends on the price, difficulty, and cost assumptions shown. Change the assumptions and the results change.

How is the Simulator different from the Fleet ROI calculator?

Calculators answer individual mining questions. The Simulator evaluates an entire mining decision across time, using the same underlying formulas.