Bitcoin Mining Scenario Simulator
Model your mining operation across the past, present, and future.
Calculators answer individual mining questions. The Simulator evaluates an entire mining decision across time. Need a quick answer? Try the Fleet ROI calculator.
Saved input sources
Based on network data from Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC
Fee revenue per block
0.0179 BTC (7-day) · 0.0173 BTC (24-hour) · mempool.space reward stats (saved snapshot)
Updated Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC
Network snapshot
Block 971,354 · 950.0 EH/s (difficulty-implied)
Hashrate derived from current difficulty via mempool.space (saved snapshot)
Step 1. Define the fleet
Machines come from the site's miner catalog. Prices are point-in-time observations — enter what you actually paid.
11.0 J/TH · Air · Available
My Fleet — results summary
This is scenario analysis, not a prediction. Results depend on the assumptions shown below.
Loading history…
Net $57/day at $83,466 BTC. Shutdown price $44,502 (87.6% above).
- Bear: -$70,981 net, ROI −87.6%, shuts down month 13
- Base: -$60,735 net, ROI −75.0%, shuts down month 19
- Bull: -$47,502 net, ROI −58.6%
Bear / Base / Bull scenarios
What happens next under different assumptions?
Defaults are editable assumptions, not predictions. Starting price and difficulty are today's values. The April 2028 halving (estimated) is applied automatically.
= −21.5%/year · ends ≈ $52,446
= 42.6%/year · ≈ 1.38% per adjustment
= 0.0%/year · ends ≈ $83,466
= 26.8%/year · ≈ 0.92% per adjustment
= 26.8%/year · ends ≈ $131,617
= 19.6%/year · ≈ 0.69% per adjustment
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC produced | 0.46329 BTC | 0.69100 BTC | 0.81940 BTC |
| Cumulative revenue | $34,933 | $57,675 | $83,402 |
| Electricity expense | $24,186 | $36,226 | $48,206 |
| Net operating cash flow | $10,049 | $20,295 | $33,528 |
| Net cash flow after capital | -$70,981 | -$60,735 | -$47,502 |
| ROI | −87.6% | −75.0% | −58.6% |
| Payback | Not within horizon | Not within horizon | Not within horizon |
| Ending mining margin | −260.1% | −75.3% | 1.7% |
| Ending break-even power | $0.0225/kWh | $0.0449/kWh | $0.0793/kWh |
| Shutdown risk | Unprofitable from month 13 | Unprofitable from month 19 | None in horizon |
Forward ROI treats the fleet as deployed today at its acquisition cost. Months where revenue after pool fees doesn't cover power are curtailed (no revenue, no power cost).
Keep output vs sell to cover costs
After 24 months, at five possible BTC prices. Keep output: hold every coin mined and pay power and pool fees in cash. Sell to cover costs: each month, sell just enough BTC to pay those bills and keep the rest. Uses the Base scenario's difficulty growth; price moves smoothly from today to the exit price. Both net figures subtract the fleet cost.
| BTC price at end | Keep: BTC held | Keep: cash paid for costs | Keep: net result | Sell: BTC left | Sell: net result | Better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41,733 (0.5× today) | 0.52306 BTC | $26,741 | -$85,942 | 0.13656 BTC | -$75,331 | Sell to cover |
| $62,600 (0.75× today) | 0.69100 BTC | $37,272 | -$75,046 | 0.19305 BTC | -$68,945 | Sell to cover |
| $83,466 (1× today) | 0.69100 BTC | $37,379 | -$60,735 | 0.24316 BTC | -$60,735 | Tie |
| $125,199 (1.5× today) | 0.69100 BTC | $37,559 | -$32,077 | 0.30243 BTC | -$43,166 | Keep output |
| $166,932 (2× today) | 0.78195 BTC | $50,429 | -$926 | 0.34651 BTC | -$23,186 | Keep output |
Keeping output wins when the price ends above the average price you'd have sold at; selling to cover wins when it ends below. Neither choice changes how much BTC the fleet mines. Taxes are not modeled. Explore this in the Keep vs Sell calculator with charts →
Bitcoin mining simulator FAQ
What is the Bitcoin Mining Scenario Simulator?
It models one mining fleet across three stages: how it would have performed historically since purchase, its economics at today's price and difficulty, and Bear/Base/Bull forecasts over 12–36 months with halvings applied automatically.
Is this a price prediction?
No. Every forward figure is scenario analysis that depends on the price, difficulty, and cost assumptions shown. Change the assumptions and the results change.
How is the Simulator different from the Fleet ROI calculator?
Calculators answer individual mining questions. The Simulator evaluates an entire mining decision across time, using the same underlying formulas.
