Solo Mining vs Pool Mining
Variance, profitability, and the right payout method for your operation — an evidence-based comparison for 2026 miners.
TL;DR
Pool mining gives you steady, predictable income. Solo mining gives you a lottery ticket with the same long-run expected value (minus pool fees) but wildly higher variance.
For almost every miner under ~1% of network hashrate, a pool — typically with an FPPS payout — is the rational choice. Solo only makes sense if variance is itself the goal.
Solo Mining
Reward: full 3.125 BTC block subsidy + all transaction fees, kept entirely by you.
Variance: extreme. Expected time-to-block ≈ (network hashrate / your hashrate) × 10 minutes.
Fees: 0% pool fee; you run the full node and pool server (e.g. CKPool, Public Pool).
Best for: lottery players, ideological miners, anyone with 1%+ of network hashrate.
Pool Mining
Reward: a share of every block the pool finds, proportional to your contributed work.
Variance: low to moderate, depending on payout method.
Fees: typically 0%–2.5% pool fee; FPPS bakes in transaction fees, PPS does not.
Best for: every miner who needs predictable cash flow to cover power bills.
Expected Time-to-Block (Solo)
The math is unforgiving. The probability of finding any given block is your share of the network:
P(block) = your_hashrate / network_hashrate Expected blocks per day = P(block) × 144 Expected days per block = 1 / (P(block) × 144) Illustrative example — 200 TH/s against a 700 EH/s network (check the Indexes page for today's hashrate): P = 200e12 / 700e18 = 2.86e-7 Blocks/day = 4.11e-5 Days/block = ~24,300 (≈ 66 years)
A pool with 50 EH/s collectively finds ~10 blocks per day, smoothing that 66-year-wait into a daily payout for every participant.
Pool Payout Methods Compared
| Method | Variance | Fee Inclusion | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPS | Lowest | Subsidy only | Predictable budgets, no fee upside |
| FPPS | Low | Subsidy + fees | Most commercial miners (default choice) |
| PPLNS | Medium | Subsidy + fees (luck-based) | Hobbyists, lower-fee pools |
| Proportional | High | Subsidy + fees (luck-based) | Mostly legacy |
Risks and Trade-offs
- Solo orphan risk: finding a block over a slow internet link can lead to orphaning and zero reward.
- Pool centralization: concentrating hashrate in a few large pools weakens Bitcoin's censorship resistance. Smaller pools and Stratum V2 mitigate this.
- Counterparty risk: pool insolvency or payout delays — pick pools with long track records and on-chain payouts.
- PPS pool insolvency: PPS pools absorb variance; a run of bad luck can bankrupt undercapitalized pools.