Mining Risk Metrics Calculator
Analyze Bitcoin mining risk with VaR, Sharpe ratio, and risk-adjusted returns. Quantify financial risk in your mining operation.
Day-to-day operational decisions, hardware evaluation, and risk management
Saved input sources
Based on network data from Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC
Fee revenue per block
0.0179 BTC (7-day) · 0.0173 BTC (24-hour) · mempool.space reward stats (saved snapshot)
Updated Oct 14, 2026, 05:15:04 UTC
Network snapshot
Block 971,354 · 950.0 EH/s (difficulty-implied)
Hashrate derived from current difficulty via mempool.space (saved snapshot)
Risk Metrics Calculator
≈ 132.72 T
Fee share of block revenue: 0.6%
Wall power incl. overhead: 34.98 kW
Fills hashrate, power and price — you can still edit them.
Results update automatically as you change inputs.
1-Day Revenue VaR
$6
At 95% confidence, one day's mining revenue ($124) should not fall by more than this from price and difficulty moves.
Annual Profit Under Stress
-$6,000
Price down by one year of volatility and difficulty up by one year of volatility (machines switch off if power isn't covered). Base case: $16,247.
Risk-Adjusted Return
0.63
Expected annual return on capital (20.1%) divided by annual revenue volatility (31.8%). Above 1 is strong; below 0 means expected loss.
About This Calculator
The Risk Metrics Calculator provides advanced risk analysis tools for mining operations, helping users understand and quantify potential risks in their mining investments.
Risk Metrics Explained:
- Value at Risk (VaR): Maximum likely loss over a day with your specified confidence level
- Stress Testing: Financial impact under worst-case scenarios of both price and difficulty changes
- Risk-Adjusted Return: Expected profit divided by its volatility (Sharpe-style; above 1 is strong, 0–1 modest, below 0 losing)
Chart Interpretation:
- Financial Exposure: Shows your daily risk (VaR) and annual stress impact. Lower bars are better.
- Market Volatility: Visualizes price and difficulty volatility inputs. Higher volatility increases risk.
- Risk-Return Score: Shows risk-adjusted return with reference lines for "strong" (>1) and "losing" (<0) scenarios.
How to Use These Insights:
Compare these metrics across different mining setups, equipment choices, or operational strategies to find the optimal balance between risk and return. Lower exposure values combined with higher risk-adjusted returns indicate a more favorable risk profile. Consider adjusting your inputs to see how changes in volatility, investment size, or operational costs impact your risk metrics.
Mathematical Equations
Daily Revenue
R_day = (Hashrate / Network Hashrate) × 144 × (Block Subsidy + Avg Fees per Block) × Price × (1 − Pool Fee)Value at Risk (1 day, on revenue)
σ = √(σ_price² + σ_difficulty²) (annualized)
VaR = R_day × z × σ / √365
z: 90% → 1.282, 95% → 1.645, 99% → 2.326Revenue scales with Price ÷ Difficulty, so volatility applies to revenue, not to capex.
Stress Test
R_stress = R_day × (1 − σ_price) / (1 + σ_difficulty)
Daily P&L = max(R_stress − Electricity, 0) − Fixed Opex (curtail if unprofitable)
Annual Stress P&L = Daily P&L × 365Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe-style)
Expected Return % = Annual Profit / Initial Investment
Volatility % = (R_day × 365 × σ) / Initial Investment
Risk-Adjusted Return = Expected Return % / Volatility %Unitless: both sides are percent of capital. All annual figures use ×365; monthly opex is converted with ×12/365.